tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-91519825308878514992024-03-12T20:13:07.963-07:00Confessions of a climate geekJulie-Anne Richardshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04023943585895204985noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9151982530887851499.post-17928294979349240282015-05-30T09:23:00.001-07:002015-05-30T09:25:40.890-07:00Human Rights, Climate Change, Fossil Fuels and Civil Society<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Last week I participated in the Business and Human Rights Resource Centre's event on <a href="http://business-humanrights.org/en/climate-change-international-human-rights-law-the-challenges-for-business" target="_blank">Climate Change and International Human Rights Law</a>. Below are my speaking notes.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">My name is Julie-Anne Richards, and I’m here today partly in my capacity as <a href="http://www.oxfam.org.uk/" target="_blank">Oxfam</a> and also as <a href="http://climatejustice.org.au/" target="_blank">Climate Justice Programme</a>. Oxfam needs no introduction. Climate Justice Programme has been working in this area for a long time. In 2003 CJP sent letters formally placing the major polluters and emitters of greenhouse gases on notice, reminding them of their potential legal liability if they failed to address the risks of climate change posed by their activities. CJP also commissioned the Carbon Majors work - more on that later.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">With less than </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">1 degree</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> of warming we have already gone beyond the most vulnerable people’s capacity to adapt to climate change. </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The worst-ever typhoon (Haiyan) has wreaked devastation in the Philippines, possibly the worst cyclone in the Pacific (Pam) destroyed or damaged 80% of buildings in Vanuatu; increasingly severe droughts in Africa and the Middle East have resulted in hunger, people forced off their land and conflict; floods here in the UK and elsewhere; the heat wave baking India right now has so far killed 1,000 people; and “super” fire storms have become an all too frequent event in California and my home country Australia. </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Climate change is possibly the biggest justice issue of all time. Caused by the fossil fuel companies, but whose impacts largely fall upon those who have done the least to cause the crisis - the poorest and most vulnerable. The people that Oxfam works with and for. But lest we be lulled into a false sense of security, an analogy can be made to the Titanic. Those of us lucky enough to be here in first class or the “first world” might feel safe and secure, whilst those in “third class” are dealing with the icy water. But the hull has been breached. and unless we do something about that breach, we’re all going down.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">We have </span><span style="font-weight: bold; vertical-align: baseline;">limited time</span><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"> to turn our trajectory around. there are some key moments coming up - the </span><span style="font-weight: bold; vertical-align: baseline;">Paris COP</span><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"> at the end of this year must be a crucial turning point - a point at which the world’s governments, business and citizens realise that we must do things differently. </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Happily, the world’s </span><span style="color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-weight: bold; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">citizens</span><span style="color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> are waking up. 400,000 people in the streets of NYC and nearly 3,000 events in 162 countries last September called loudly for ‘climate action now’. The lead up to Paris will see more people, more voters on the street calling for action even more loudly. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">And organised civil society is also waking up and doing things differently.</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">There is more solidarity across civil society in seeing the </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">links between climate change and other social issues - including inequality</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">.</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">And there has been an increasing focus on the </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">human rights</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> aspect of climate change (for which the <a href="http://www.ibanet.org/PresidentialTaskForceClimateChangeJustice2014Report.aspx" target="_blank">IBA</a> can take some of the credit), and messaging of climate change from a </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">values perspective</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> (some of you may be familiar with the For The Love Of campaign).</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Perhaps most noteworthy is a shift to identify and focus on the </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">real climate change villains - the fossil fuel industry</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">.</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Both the excellent work done by</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Carbon Tracker on the Carbon Bubble</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> - which showed that we have to leave 80% of fossil fuels in the ground - and the great work done by </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Bill McKibben and 350.org</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> in making this “terrifying maths” and the solution to it personal and actionable - through their divestment campaign.</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">divestment campaign has inspired enthusiasm worldwide</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">, causing something like $50bn of funds to be allocated away from fossil fuel companies and within the last week forced the Commonwealth Bank to close branches in Melbourne and Sydney CBD and across Australia. And soon, the biggest pension fund in the world, the Norwegian Pension Fund, might announce they will divest from coal.</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">A second, and important, nail in the fossil fuel coffin was the publication of the </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Carbon Majors research</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> in late 2013. the result of 8 years of work, this study helps to solve the ‘attribution’ dilemma. We now know that </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Chevron, Exxon Mobil and Saudi Aramco are each responsible for more than 3%</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> of global historical emissions. And that BP, Shell, Gazprom are each responsible for more than 2% of emissions.</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Together the products from these 90 “Carbon Majors” are </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">responsible for two thirds of climate pollution</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> since the industrial revolution began. Two thirds of the climate change we - and poor people - are experiencing today.</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This work opens the way for two options.</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The first is </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">litigation</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. there are legal strategies and a number of cases being prepared now to bring against the fossil fuel industry by civil society. It’s highly likely that civil society won’t be the only ones bringing cases. As attribution of specific events improves (including through the work that Oxford University are doing) the </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">insurance industry</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> must surely be looking to recoup some of its monumental costs for events like Hurricane Sandy - $10-28bn. There are already examples of </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">governments</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> taking to courts to seek injunctions (FSMicronesia against coal power in Czech Republic), no doubt there will be other examples as governments face increasing costs.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">The second option, is a <a href="http://climatejustice.org.au/issue/carbon-majors/" target="_blank">proposal</a> that CJP and the Heinrich Boll Foundation put forward roughly a year ago, that the </span><span style="font-weight: bold; vertical-align: baseline;">fossil fuel industry should pay for the climate damage</span><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"> of their products via a </span><span style="font-weight: bold; vertical-align: baseline;">global fossil fuel extraction levy paid</span><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"> into the international mechanism for </span><span style="font-weight: bold; vertical-align: baseline;">loss and damage.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The concept of a global fossil fuel extraction levy being paid into an international compensation mechanism for loss and damage has a solid basis in law and it has precedent - including the </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">IOPC</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">, the oil spill regime, where companies that ship oil around the world pay a levy into an international fund that is used for compensation in the case of oil spills.</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This would both put a </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">price on carbon</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> - and simultaneously </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">raise significant funds</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> for the most vulnerable communities who are facing the worst impacts of climate change. It’s a no-brainer, really, that the fossil fuel industry, who make trillions of dollars in </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">profits</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">, should pay for the damages their products are wreaking, rather than the poor. </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">At even a low price of carbon - say </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">$2 a tonne of CO2</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> - this levy would raise </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">$50bn</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> a year. If it were to increase 5-10% a year it could provide a predictable source of finance at roughly the scale necessary for climate damage in vulnerable countries. </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Of course, it needs to be embedded within an overall </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">plan to phase out fossil fuels</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. Because if Exxon Mobil, Shell, BP, Saudi Aramco want a long term future - they need to learn to do something other than extract and sell fossil fuels. </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">And </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">if governments want to avoid</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> one of two shocks - the terrible shock of climate change impacts OR the shock of the carbon bubble bursting - then they must put in place </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">plans to phase out fossil fuels</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">With a clear plan the </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">UK could phase out coal by 2023</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> whilst ensuring a just transition for workers into, the higher employing, renewable energy sector.</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">To close</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">It’s </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">still possible to keep warming to below 1.5 degrees</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> - hence avoiding absolute climate catastrophe - but we are too late to prevent all climate impacts. In order to stop climate catastrophe we have to act now. </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br class="kix-line-break" /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Slight tweaks to business as usual might bend the curve</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> from 4.3 to 3.7 degrees. But to ensure a planet on which we think we can survive, </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">radical change is necessary now</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. </span></div>
<span id="docs-internal-guid-b4c4e74f-a594-dc4a-83b6-28f0ba5b5c81"><br /><span style="color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I encourage everyone in this room, I encourage </span><span style="color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-weight: bold; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">you</span><span style="color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">, to think about what radical action you will take to ensure you’re on the </span><span style="color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; font-weight: bold; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">right side of history</span><span style="color: #18376a; font-family: Calibri; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">.</span></span></div>
Julie-Anne Richardshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04023943585895204985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9151982530887851499.post-32142438875958661732013-11-13T03:12:00.005-08:002013-11-13T04:32:22.399-08:00Julie-Anne's media statement at Warsaw Climate Conference, 13 November 2013 <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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You can watch my statement here (at 09:31): <a href="http://bit.ly/1bu6z3L">http://bit.ly/1bu6z3L</a><br />
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My name’s Julie-Anne and I’m an Australian. Which is quite an admission in these halls at the moment.</div>
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People keep coming up to me and asking what’s going on? Why my government is doing such terrible things on climate policy? Why are they so addicted to coal? Why are they so determined to go backwards? How can they trash their climate policy when the rest of the world is meeting here in Warsaw to try and move forward on climate? And, particularly when our neighbouring countries, especially the Philippines, are suffering such devastation from the worst ever (worst ever!) Typhoon. </div>
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But the main question they ask me is - do the Australian people support all of this negativity and destruction?</div>
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The answer to that question is they categorically do not. The majority of Australian people do not support repealing the carbon price, trashing renewable energy support, dismantling the Climate Change Authority and the Clean Energy Finance Corporation and winding back support for a long term target of reducing carbon pollution by 80% by 2050.<br />
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If you want evidence of that look no further than the Climate Commission – one of the first things the government did was to shut the Climate Commission down. Within one week - only a week - they were able to start back up as a public groundswell of over 20,000 Australians donated small amounts to add up to $1 million. In just a week. Because Australians want to be informed about climate change. </div>
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Ordinary Australians are so keen for action on climate change because we’ve lived the beginnings of climate change. We’ve seen “one in a hundred year floods” happen in Queensland twice in a period of just twelve months. And in the same period Queensland coped it with Cyclone Yasi – the worst cyclone in nearly 100 years. We’ve had the worst drought ever within the last decade – and parts of the country are in drought again. In Sydney, where I live, we just had devastating bushfires. In October – mid Spring! The earliest such bushfires have happened. And, of course, we’ve seen on our televisions the devastation of Typhoon Haiyan. And ordinary Australians haven’t lived through this, and seen our neighbours suffer even worse, and gone – “oh, I know, let’s repeal effective action on climate change”. Ordinary Australians in fact want MORE action on climate change, not less.</div>
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Recent polling by GetUp! Showed that the majority of Australians want Australia to adopt a higher target (of 15% or 25%) as the Climate Change Authority recently recommended. 65% of people said they wanted stronger action on climate change.</div>
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The Coalition that PM Abbott leads have a long standing policy of supporting these target ranges – and the conditions attached to them. It is not genuine to say you stand by the target ranges if you then change the conditions to be unrealistic and unreasonable. We need clarity on this from the government. </div>
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And, as the Independent Climate Change Authority identified less than a fortnight ago, it is in Australia’s national interest to increase our target.</div>
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It’s in our national interest not only because we are so vulnerable to climate change, but also because unless we increase our target and take more action, we’re in danger of falling behind the rest of the world. </div>
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Next year, 2014, is the year for climate ambition PM Abbott. Your Government will be expected to come to the Ban Ki-moon Summit in September 2014 and put on the table how you’ll increase your 2020 target, and a 2025 carbon pollution reduction target and climate finance that reflects Australia’s fair share. And we Australians will be pushing every day to make sure you do this. Starting this Sunday – where Australians in every corner of the country will be at a National day of action.</div>
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Julie-Anne Richardshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04023943585895204985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9151982530887851499.post-31282473882549509132013-08-04T00:19:00.001-07:002013-08-13T03:08:36.241-07:00The International Climate Negotiations ... is there hope? And what does it mean for Australia? (and other countries?)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
I was recently asked to give a presentation on the international climate negotiations - is there hope? As you'll see I assess what went wrong in the lead up to Copenhagen, and whether things are different in the lead up to 2015. I won't give away the punchline - you've only got to get to slide 8 to read my answer to "is there hope". The rest of the presentation is thoughts on what we need to get a good international climate agreement - within the negotiations and domestically.<br />
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The presentation can be downloaded from slideshare <a href="http://www.slideshare.net/JulieAnneRichards/the-international-climate-negotiations-is-there-hope">here</a>, and via google docs <a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/13GIk5p8w4EA5EcwJFyXeOOYaPjgkWWQNeBOki_CUVDg/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>. And for the super keen the video of me delivering it is <a href="http://vimeo.com/71944870">here</a> (but I have added a slide to the slideshow version, based on the discussion we had when I delivered it in Melbourne and Sydney).<br />
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I'd welcome your comments below on whether you think I'm on the money. </div>
Julie-Anne Richardshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04023943585895204985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9151982530887851499.post-85408278888638997642013-01-17T18:54:00.003-08:002013-01-17T21:18:47.712-08:0044 degrees and still rising<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Today's my day off.
But I'm trapped in the study as a heat wave beats down. The study is a very small
room in our very small apartment. But
the only room that our even smaller air conditioner can handle cooling on this
44oC and rising day. So instead of going shopping, to yoga, for a swim or a walk – I'm writing about climate
change!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Not that I need do the writing, actually. Because an excellent bunch of scientists
from the Australian Bureau of Metereology (or the BOM as I like to call them as
in “it’s da BOMb”) have done the writing for me <a href="http://theconversation.edu.au/whats-causing-australias-heat-wave-11628" target="_blank">here</a>. But as they are scientists, writing in an age
where being a scientist seems to be a license for people to persecute you, the article is not super short nor snappy. So, the summary (with some ‘colour’ from me)
is:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The first two weeks of January 2013 now hold the records for
the hottest Australian day on record, the hottest two-day period on record, the
hottest three-day period, the hottest four-day period and, so on up to the
hottest 14 day period on record (for Australia-wide average daily temperatures)<a name='more'></a></span></li>
</ul>
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<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The number of records that have been set in this most recent
heatwave stretch for pages and pages – see the BOM’s <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs43c.pdf" target="_blank">Special Climate Statement</a></span></li>
</ul>
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<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It’s really, really flippin’ hot. So when the relative at the barbecue you were
forced to go to over xmas says “I don’t know why everyone is making such a
fuss, I remember when it was hotter than 40 degrees all the time”* you should
reply: “People with instruments, whose job it is to measure these things, have
not seen such a heat wave before. It’s
breaking all the records. You probably
also remember when you were so spunky that everyone at uni wanted to sleep with
you. None of what you remember is
empirically accurate. The BOM
measurements are.”</span></li>
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<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The BOM says that all of this record breaking stinky weather can be
“strongly attributed” to us humans carbon dioxide generating activities:</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The impact of global warming is clearly
observed in a distribution shift of daily weather, as well as shifts in monthly
and seasonal climate, to higher temperatures. And increases the chances of
extreme weather events – that’s record breaking heat events. We’re getting
abnormally hot days with 30% more frequency and abnormally hot nights with 50%
more frequency</span></li>
</ul>
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<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It’s not just us Aussies who are flagging in the heat. You
might have noticed that the US has had heat waves in recent years (and killer
droughts) and the Europeans and Russians are among the sufferers as
well.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">[although I note that it is poor
people in tropical and sub tropical countries who will suffer most from climate
change – but more from me and the World Bank in another post]</span></li>
</ul>
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<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It’s going to get worse, and it’s
going to get worse than we have ever experienced before.</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Cheery? Not so
much. But given that this climate
craziness is being caused by our pollution – it seems we need a dose of
our own medicine to generate the enthusiasm to stop polluting. I’m voting for some action now! (by now, I mean as soon as it cools down enough to leave the study!)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOyVZrTJUaiKa7qC1PywMSZaudzph8pHueMpLgESarRNj6h98f8lYMoNadxwVT45rT8Y_TGBxB9X0rlBHaDwAr1xZ4CCyqOy_UYBppXIBAZmZswHdTjs9ZzfnZOY2ehB6wdT4vHY_dgt6i/s1600/44_degrees_and_still_rising.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOyVZrTJUaiKa7qC1PywMSZaudzph8pHueMpLgESarRNj6h98f8lYMoNadxwVT45rT8Y_TGBxB9X0rlBHaDwAr1xZ4CCyqOy_UYBppXIBAZmZswHdTjs9ZzfnZOY2ehB6wdT4vHY_dgt6i/s320/44_degrees_and_still_rising.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">from www.weatherzone.com.au</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">* sadly this is a true anecdote.</span></div>
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Julie-Anne Richardshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04023943585895204985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9151982530887851499.post-50764165172327875572012-08-12T06:33:00.001-07:002012-08-12T21:48:41.807-07:00Will climate change constrain China's development? Part 2: Green growth pathways<br />
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<span style="line-height: 20pt;">There are two key ways in which climate
change will affect China’s development.</span><span style="line-height: 20pt;">
</span><span style="line-height: 20pt;">Firstly the impacts of climate change on China (such as increasing
droughts and water shortages, increases in severe weather events and rising sea
level, and the costs of air pollution) will affect China’s population and its
economic development.</span><span style="line-height: 20pt;"> </span><span style="line-height: 20pt;">These effects were
discussed in a </span><a href="http://confessionsofaclimategeek.blogspot.com.au/2012/07/will-climate-change-impacts-constrain.html" style="line-height: 20pt;">previous
post</a><span style="line-height: 20pt;">.</span><span style="line-height: 20pt;"> </span><span style="line-height: 20pt;">The second consideration is to
how difficult it will be to shift China’s current economic model to one of low
carbon development and the costs and benefits of doing so.</span><span style="line-height: 20pt;"> </span></div>
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China has developed very rapidly in a very
resource intensive manner which has grown the economy and reduced poverty in
China whilst simultaneously producing <b>huge</b>
levels of pollution that are now having a substantial impact on the Chinese
quality of life and a negative impact on continuing economic development. China was able to borrow ideas for its
development from both Soviet and western examples, and has followed a fairly
familiar development path. China has
also borrowed the idea of “develop first clean up later”. Given the dire state of the Chinese
environment, and the global imperative to reduce emissions, this is unlikely to
be a viable pathway for China. But there
are obstacles with Chinese characteristics in China shifting its economy to a
low carbon pathway. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>China’s
development has been resource intensive</b><o:p></o:p></div>
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Since 1978 China has built a manufacturing
based economy. China’s economic growth
has been particularly energy-intensive. In
2007 the Chinese economy was 6.2% of the world economy, but accounted for 21%
of CO2 emissions, 17% consumption of energy from non renewable sources, 34%
steel, 48% cement and 31% non ferrous metal consumption (Chinese Academy of
sciences in Keeley and Yisheng 2011, p24).
Total energy consumption in China increased 70% between 2000 and 2005,
and coal consumption increased by 75% (World Bank 2007). The graph below from the International Energy
Agency (IEA) demonstrates that China’s use of coal in the electricity supply
has grown dramatically.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtxGrov0r-aOnkTrxYvwNz-6XkPSa9FID8tOj-ieNWVnotLeYXMVEfGq9DDIVGUSrx8T37NYlK67nReKD2LY0rx9PqlOOXD7vN8wR3mCuo9uSchqACW0Y4Q_5hqaSiqYtX7ObzV-2zAktR/s1600/IEA_electricity_supply.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="337" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtxGrov0r-aOnkTrxYvwNz-6XkPSa9FID8tOj-ieNWVnotLeYXMVEfGq9DDIVGUSrx8T37NYlK67nReKD2LY0rx9PqlOOXD7vN8wR3mCuo9uSchqACW0Y4Q_5hqaSiqYtX7ObzV-2zAktR/s640/IEA_electricity_supply.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<o:p> </o:p>Source:
IEA 2012a p16. </div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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All of which has meant that China’s
greenhouse gas emissions have grown substantially, to the point that China has
overtaken the United States as the worlds’ number one polluter as shown
below. </div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3dSoap3cVz9q1NRFbSChY3dcaYbsx-XrpkrXutpuLa7Szahh-52rF1sfwztrUax0gOTwpQ4egEFf9ayDDxt2fHgtdvZimMscItWjJ-L_R7FMKPdF-e5fs38wOfQyRSe5h_MnMDVeVOnau/s1600/emissions_per_country.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3dSoap3cVz9q1NRFbSChY3dcaYbsx-XrpkrXutpuLa7Szahh-52rF1sfwztrUax0gOTwpQ4egEFf9ayDDxt2fHgtdvZimMscItWjJ-L_R7FMKPdF-e5fs38wOfQyRSe5h_MnMDVeVOnau/s400/emissions_per_country.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Data source Olivier 2011, p33. Graph
developed by me.</div>
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The pollution associated with this growth has
a directly negative impact on the Chinese population and Chinese economic
growth in many ways – including reduced air quality and increased water
pollution. The human and economic impact
of these were explored in my <a href="http://confessionsofaclimategeek.blogspot.com.au/2012/07/will-climate-change-impacts-constrain.html">earlier
post</a>. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Estimated losses from environmental pollution
vary widely -- from 3% of 2004 GDP in Studies in Green National Accounting,
published in 2006 by the State Environmental Protection Administration and
National Bureau of Statistics (Jin and Mingyuan in Keeley and Yisheng 2001,
p161) to 8-12% of GDP by Economy (2004 p19) and 18% of GDP (Chinese Academy of
Sciences in Jin and Mingyuan in Keeley and Yisheng 2011, p161).<o:p></o:p></div>
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The degradation of China’s natural
environment has a negative impact on China’s ability to increase wealth. UNU-IHDP and UNEP (2012) have produced an
Inclusive Wealth Index (IWI) that calculates whether a country is positioned to
grow its wealth, by factoring in human, produced and natural capital. As the table below shows China’s GDP growth
per capita has been very high, at 9.6%, but when the reduction in natural
capital is taken into account its wealth growth (IWI) per capita reduces to
only 2.1%. <b><i>China’s degradation of natural
capital is putting at risk its ability to increase wealth. </i></b>The report recommends that China
re-evaluate its development strategy and begin increasing its investment in
natural capital. (UNU-IHDP and UNEP 2012, pp 43, 44, 55)<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjryD6IpasBAwvppkXr-v9E3eiSROWdYZuwodC5rRANoBvgPFJEQDOdIDyFjJovYTb0yDWwjMRzZsPI18pwHs3JWo_ktBdfi4qj4LQ3tcBT89s0D8_l1ftEJAywnTuiS2nhFSVAjcuO39G/s1600/IWI.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjryD6IpasBAwvppkXr-v9E3eiSROWdYZuwodC5rRANoBvgPFJEQDOdIDyFjJovYTb0yDWwjMRzZsPI18pwHs3JWo_ktBdfi4qj4LQ3tcBT89s0D8_l1ftEJAywnTuiS2nhFSVAjcuO39G/s400/IWI.png" width="310" /></a></div>
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<o:p> </o:p>Source:
UNU-IHDP and UNEP 2012, p44</div>
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Specifically <b>the cost of CO2 emissions on the Chinese economy has been calculated to
be extremely high by UNU-IHDP and UNEP (2012, p100), with costs of 3.58% of GNI
on production and 2.81% GNI on consumption</b>.
These costs are below only Russia and Iran and compare unfavourably with
a world average of 0.93% for both production and consumption. <o:p></o:p></div>
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So there is wide agreement that China’s
pollution is damaging the Chinese economy.
And a widely agreed view that China should reform its economic direction
in order to shift to a low carbon pathway.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>A low
carbon pathway to growth?</b><o:p></o:p></div>
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China faces the “perfect storm” in relation
to its continued economic development and climate change challenges. China’s dire pollution levels means that it
does not have the luxury of ‘developing first, cleaning up later’ – the path
that many already highly developed countries took. Additionally China’s continued development
must take place in a carbon constrained world.
And many countries have shifted their heavily polluting industries to
China, yet have high expectations that China will reduce emissions. These factors, explored below, conspire to
pose challenges for China’s continued development. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Countries that industrialised early tended to
experience different kinds of environmental damage during different stages of
economic development. Many of them were
able to ‘develop first and clean up later’.
However in China these stages and problems have been conflated as the
pace of development has been so rapid.
New problems are forming when existing problems have yet to be solved,
compounding each other and make solving any one problem far more difficult as
it is entwined with other problems. (Yisheng in Keeley and Yisheng 2011,
p13-14) <o:p></o:p></div>
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This is exacerbated as the countries that
have already reached high levels of development and living standards have done
so with few, if any, carbon constraints and hence have used up a substantial
portion of the available “carbon budget” (Baer et al 2009). Hence China has the task of continuing its
development in a globally carbon constrained world (as illustrated in the graph
below). <o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWkPtKRwq9HO9xAE806Zxx5dFmHv9NYFjWpmEVMZ-bSNHZJc0Nu4jmmnZwbH23vlM79Rir_9mJK63ybd89jIC3L1SiuuGqTjM0INnx5kVyk04lj_fJ66Y-J-LbQrUgS2-vE6H7lbRg3Z1r/s1600/GDR_pathways.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWkPtKRwq9HO9xAE806Zxx5dFmHv9NYFjWpmEVMZ-bSNHZJc0Nu4jmmnZwbH23vlM79Rir_9mJK63ybd89jIC3L1SiuuGqTjM0INnx5kVyk04lj_fJ66Y-J-LbQrUgS2-vE6H7lbRg3Z1r/s400/GDR_pathways.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Source: Athanasiou 2011<o:p></o:p></div>
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An additional element of this perfect storm
is that many of the countries that are already developed have shifted their
heavily polluting industries to China – hence they find it relatively easy to
reduce their emissions, yet China may find it commensurately more
difficult. 23-33% of China’s emissions
can be allocated to net exports. (Wen 2009)<o:p></o:p></div>
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In a speech to the G8 in 2008 President Hu
cited these challenges as reasons for not wanting to undertake internationally
legally binding emission reduction commitments : Firstly China is a developing country in the
process of industrialization and modernization, secondly China’s per capita
emissions are relatively low, and are even lower if calculated in accumulative
terms, and thirdly as a result of changes in international division of labor
and manufacturing relocation, China faces mounting pressure of international
transferred emissions. (NIC 2009)<o:p></o:p></div>
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There are heavy international expectations
that China will reduce its emissions – both to benefit its own citizens, but
mainly in order to contribute to keeping global warming within internationally
agreed “safe” limits. The graph below
illustrates one set of expectations for China's emissions pathway.
<o:p></o:p></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqx6fBJCstETklhvWZ_g8h7mKzruFxuQad_CWgRduUS5JtDqXa0MGbhciIG7nfOK0XbJtQk9fzTNY2Nd7dqF5IiYeVQWYoTa8rXHj7uddg8iu7gB3UnNQcgJ4HjKbryLt_LI3DHSaEl7ZB/s1600/GDR_China.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqx6fBJCstETklhvWZ_g8h7mKzruFxuQad_CWgRduUS5JtDqXa0MGbhciIG7nfOK0XbJtQk9fzTNY2Nd7dqF5IiYeVQWYoTa8rXHj7uddg8iu7gB3UnNQcgJ4HjKbryLt_LI3DHSaEl7ZB/s320/GDR_China.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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Source: Baer et al 2009, p78</div>
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<b>Setting
targets & establishing plans<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Against this backdrop China has acknowledged
it must take action and follow a low carbon growth path. China integrated this effort into its 11<sup>th</sup>
Five-Year Plan, and has enhanced its efforts within the 12<sup>th</sup>
Five-Year Plan. (Lee 2012)<o:p></o:p></div>
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China has 3 key mitigation actions it has
committed to: </div>
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<ul>
<li><span style="line-height: 20pt; text-indent: -18pt;">reduce
emissions per unit of GDP (energy intensity) by 40-45% by 2020 compared to
2005;</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 20pt; text-indent: -18pt;">increase
share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to 15% by 2020;</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 20pt; text-indent: -18pt;">increase
forest cover and forest stock (Chinese Government, 2012). </span></li>
</ul>
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These targets have been translated into
China’s 12<sup>th</sup> Five-Year Plan and down to province and county level. (Li
2012 and Lee 2012) <o:p></o:p><br />
<br />
China is investing in meeting these targets, and reducing its emissions against business as usual. Liu Fenghua, deputy securetary-general of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, says under the 12th Five-Year Plan, battling the country's environmental pollution will involve an investment of up to 3.4 billion yuan, or about 1.4% of the country's GDP for the same period. (Lee 2012)</div>
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<b>On track to meet targets – but emissions will
still go up<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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China
has had mixed results to date against its emissions targets. Emission targets for the 11<sup>th</sup> Five
Year Plan were reached largely because they targeted the ‘low hanging fruit’ of
relatively easy reductions (Li 2012) and also because many small but highly
polluting mines and factories were closed (Seligsohn 2011) especially in the
final year. <o:p></o:p></div>
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China
missed its targets in the first year of the 12<sup>th</sup> five year plan
targets (Li 2012), yet assessments by Höhne et al (2011b) and den Elzen et al
(2012) consider that China is likely to surpass its emissions intensity pledge
for 2020 based on China’s efforts to save energy and to introduce renewable
sources. For the period 2006 to 2010,
emissions per GDP decreased by 21%.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b><i>Even
with the potential overachievement against China’s emission intensity target China’s
absolute emissions are likely to be about 1 GtCO2e higher than previous
estimates due to faster than forecast economic growth.</i></b> As energy consumption
and real emissions do not increase as fast as economic growth, paradoxically,
higher economic growth will make it easier to achieve China’s energy intensity
target, whilst resulting in higher absolute emissions. (Höhne et all 2011b)<o:p></o:p></div>
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This is likely to increase international
pressure on China to either increase its energy intensity target or to take an
absolute emissions reduction target, ie: a target that would place an upper
limit on overall emissions. China has
steadfastly refused to do this, given its current level of development.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>Cost of action high – but benefits higher?</b><o:p></o:p></div>
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There is no internationally agreed level of
action from individual countries in order to keep warming within the agreed
goal of 2 degrees<a href="file:///C:/Users/julieanne/Documents/JAR%20folders/blog/Will_climate_change_impacts_constrain_Chinas_development_part2.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-AU; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">[1]</span></span></span></a>. This is the focus of the current round of
negotiations (the Durban Platform which is due to culminate in a legally
binding agreement in 2015). However
there is broad agreement that there is a gap in ambition between the action
that countries have currently committed to and that which is necessary to keep
warming below 2 degrees (UNEP 2011, IEA 2012, den Elzen et al 2012). <o:p></o:p></div>
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The International Energy Agency (IEA) has
calculated the additional investment required to shift from the current set of
commitments, which they calculate as 6 degrees (6DS) of warming, to the
internationally agreed goal of 2 degrees (2SD).
The elements of which are illustrated below.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh80S415aePeai3sEtLfx5TuTEoNg9K9oBunlUTR16-JvEu_6FGYxYxHVxok09uLmAvkRqqNJ1RvwCklTeYJUASfKZ2KycSRplP4vhxAbqLBesKEs9eorhG49_pwJm46IVarkPQ3Iujltzj/s1600/IEA_additional_investment.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh80S415aePeai3sEtLfx5TuTEoNg9K9oBunlUTR16-JvEu_6FGYxYxHVxok09uLmAvkRqqNJ1RvwCklTeYJUASfKZ2KycSRplP4vhxAbqLBesKEs9eorhG49_pwJm46IVarkPQ3Iujltzj/s400/IEA_additional_investment.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Source:
IEA 2012a, p62<o:p></o:p></div>
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It can be seen that China makes up a
significant portion of this investment. The
IEA (2012a, p61) notes that China’s economic growth is expected to remain
strong over the next decade resulting in increased investment needs across all
sectors, but particularly in the power and transport sectors to meet growing
demand for electricity and higher vehicle penetration rates. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Using the graph as a guide the IEA allocates
to China approximately 13% of the additional investment required to move from 6DS
to 2DS. Given that China’s GDP currently
makes up approximately 10% of the world GDP, but is growing quickly, on this measure
it seems a little high but not unreasonable.
But the IEA graph foreshadows a roughly equivalent level of investment
in the US - which is 60% larger than the Chinese economy. This would appear to allocate a relatively
light effort to the US. This reflects a
general expectation that China will take a relatively high level of effort in
the fight against dangerous climate change.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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The IEA (2012a) points out that whilst this
is significant additional investment needed to transition to a low-carbon future,
they expect China’s economy to continue to grow, that such a transition will have
net economic benefits and there will be other advantages including reduced
environmental damage, significantly improved health and employment benefits and
reduced geopolitical stresses. As
dependence on fossil fuels is reduced, global energy security will increase. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>A
different path than developed countries followed – one without cars?</b><o:p></o:p></div>
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Past economic development within China has increased
standards of living for Chinese dramatically.
However the heavily polluting economic pathway has had disadvantages and
China may have exceeded the cost benefit point of this development path. If China is to follow a different development
pathway forward, what will it look like?<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Many economists insist that China must boost
domestic consumption in order to balance an investment and export led economy. But where would China find the resources to
fuel domestic demand if a large portion of Chinese became heavy consumers? It would require several Earths to support
the global population if every Chinese consumed resources at, or even near, the
level of the average citizen in wealthier, developed countries (Chinese Academy
of Sciences, 2010 in Yisheng 2011, p13).
<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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The size of China means that it has a
disproportionate impact on international prices, which could have a heavy
impact on domestic inflation if Chinese consumers starting buying at the rate
of Western consumers. For instance, if
Chinese consumers were to start buying and using cars at Western rates it is
likely the global price of oil would increase at a fast rate fuelling domestic
inflation (Yisheng in Keeley and Yisheng 2011, p19) and international
tension. Yet this is the current
trajectory, with China’s passenger vehicle sales growing 22.6% in one year,
despite <span style="background: white;">Beijing being plagued by traffic
gridlock (McDonnell 2012). Imports to
China have also been growing, up by 12.7% on previous year (McDonnell 2012). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">For all the reasons explored
above China must follow a different path than the one it has taken in development
so far and different from the typical development path followed by Western and
Soviet economies in the past. But there
is no existing example of what this economic future might look like. Such a change will require a huge shift in
mind space for Chinese leaders, and for the rest of the world. This shift will require mainstream financial
markets to understand and take into account a new sustainable pathway, and it
will require China to overcome both the pressures to continue along a tried and
true development path and also some specific Chinese challenges.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>Challenges
with Chinese characteristics</b><o:p></o:p></div>
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There are a number of specific challenges
that China faces in redeploying its economy in light of the constraints posed
by climate change. Some of the key challenges
are outlined below.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>GDP
before environment</b><o:p></o:p></div>
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The forces of economic development within China
continue to be powerfully skewed toward GDP, hence ensuring that environmental
policies remain marginalized. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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The incentive structure, particularly at a
local and regional level, encourages wasteful, GDP-boosting spending at the
expense of environmental sustainability and an unrelenting pressure to generate
employment in order to maintain social stability (Yisheng in Keeley and Yisheng
2011, p19). For instance local
enterprises are responsible for a significant portion of pollution, yet are
often a key form of local employment and income to local state organisations
(Economy 2004, p91-129). <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Local governments have strong incentives to
turn a blind eye to corporate environmental misconduct because they depend on
tax revenue from these same businesses.
And in order to gain revenue local government institutions often exploit
the resources they are charged with managing. (Yisheng in Keeley and Yisheng
2011, p17)<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Political achievement and subsequent career
advancement is gauged on the basis of GDP growth. Reform of job performance evaluation systems
for political office-holders to include environmental standards as well as
traditionally calculated economic growth rates would bring enormous benefits
for Chinese economy and society. (Jin
and Mingyuan in Keeley and Yisheng 2011, p167)<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>Structural
change needed</b><o:p></o:p></div>
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There is a concern that even though the Chinese
Government has identified a ‘third great transformation’ to a clean economy, and
there are competitive pressures on Chinese entrepreneurs to adopt clean technologies,
that most of the ‘fixes’ have been technological improvements only. Whereas the problem is so deeply entrenched
that an overhaul of the structural and institutional levels of the economy is
necessary to affect change of the scale required. (Yisheng in Keeley and Yisheng 2011, p19)<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Two examples illustrate the difficultly in addressing
structural challenges. Since 2006 coal
prices in China have been subject to market pricing and domestic coal prices
have increased by more than 50% from 2006 to 2008. However a continued policy
of keeping power prices low has meant that China’s top five state owned power
generating groups incurred losses of USD 1.9 billion in the first five months
of 2011. (China Electric Council in IEA 2012a, p20) This subsidy of energy prices is not only a
transfer of public wealth to polluters, but also undermines the attempted
structural adjustment, acting as a disincentive against increased energy
efficiency.<o:p></o:p></div>
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A second example - in 2010 China became the
world leader in total installed capacity of wind. However out of the 63GW of cumulative
installed onshore wind capacity, only 47GW were grid connected at the end of
2011 (IEA 2012a, p27). This illustrates
both the structural problems that China faces and the cultural challenges where
a mindset of announcing large projects is valued over an approach of
systemically identifying problems and fixing them (Economy 2004, p121). <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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On the positive side China’s 12th Five Year
Plan (2011 to 2015) sends a strong message about the introduction of a national
carbon trading scheme after 2020. In 2011, six provinces and cities were given
a mandate to test pilot a carbon pricing system, which may go into effect as
early as 2013. This will act as a strong
incentive for lower emission investment decisions and could provide the signal
needed for a structural realignment. (IEA 2012a, p20) <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>Rule
of law (or not)</b><o:p></o:p></div>
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As Yisheng (in Keeley and Yisheng 2011, p17)
notes there are plenty of environmental laws and regulations on paper -- 20
major pieces of legislation according to Jin and Mingyuan (in Keeley and
Yisheng 2011, p162). The problem is with
enforcement.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Chinese laws are typically written in general
language, with specifics left to implementation guidelines, supplementary
provisions or the discretion of law enforcers.
Most legislation is too abstract, general and vague and hence is
inadequate for effective rule of law. Enforcement
agencies have practically unbound discretionary power. Many laws go unenforced, or enforcement is
too lax. Environmental and resource
management agencies and their staff deliberately sabotage law enforcement by
bending laws to suit their own purposes or even breaking them outright. In other instances administrative agencies
can be handicapped while trying to do their work because legal guidelines are
ambiguous, abstract and unenforceable. And soft measures for violations of the law do
little to encourage compliance. (Jin
and Mingyuan in Keeley and Yisheng 2011, p163 & 164)<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>How
accurate is the data?</b><span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">A recent paper in Nature </span>(in Fogerty & Stanway 2012)<span style="background: white;"> identified a 1.4-billion tonne emission gap in different versions of
China’s 2010 emission statistics – a nearly 20% discrepancy. </span>The findings expose the challenges
China faces in introduce emissions trading schemes, which need accurate
measurement, reporting and verification of energy use and carbon pollution at
the local and national level when China has not got a history of this kind of
account keeping. (Guan in Fogerty &
Stanway 2012)<b><o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>Conclusion
<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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There is no doubt that China’s development
must follow a different path forward, compared with the highly polluting path
it leaves in its wake. China faces huge
challenges in shifting to this low pollution pathway – some of these challenges
have Chinese characteristics and will be difficult to overcome as they require
not just technological but more importantly institutional and structural
change. However, the Chinese Government
has recognised the need for these changes and taken steps upon the new pathway.
These changes will have not inconsequential costs, but the economic and social
benefits outweigh the costs. The question is whether China can make the
changes quickly enough to continue growth on a low carbon pathway, and hence
continue to increase the material living standards of its citizens whilst
improving the natural capital of the country.
If the Chinese Government fails in this task it is likely to come into
conflict with its own citizens, who will demand a better quality of life, and
the international community who expect a high level of action on climate change
from China.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<div id="ftn1">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="file:///C:/Users/julieanne/Documents/JAR%20folders/blog/Will_climate_change_impacts_constrain_Chinas_development_part2.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-AU; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span></span></a> At
the UN climate change talks countries have agreed a goal of keeping warming
below 2 degrees and agreement to reassess whether 1.5 degrees is a more
appropriate goal (UNFCCC 2011).</div>
</div>
</div>
Julie-Anne Richardshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04023943585895204985noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9151982530887851499.post-89023906100561388742012-07-21T22:36:00.000-07:002012-07-22T04:14:05.577-07:00Will climate change constrain China's development? Part 1: climate impacts<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 16pt;">Will climate change constrain China's development? It's likely to do so in a number of ways. First and most obviously the
impacts of climate change, such as increasing droughts and desertification and
more extreme weather events such as typhoons, could impact China’s
development. Second side effects from
the causes of climate change, including air pollution from burning coal, are already having negative health impacts and a subsequent detrimental impact on the economy. Third these pollution and weather/climate
impacts could affect the political stability within China. Finally the need to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions may impose a cost on the economy and have international implications
relevant for China’s growth. I’ll
explore the first points in this post, and the final point will be explored in the second part of this series.</span><br />
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<a name='more'></a> <o:p></o:p></div>
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Climate
change impacts on China will depend on overall levels of global warming. Global
temperature <span style="background-color: white; line-height: 16pt;">increase so far is approx 0.75 degrees C (Met Office 2012). Dangerous levels of climate change have been
variously defined as over 1.5 degrees C (AOSIS and LDCs 2009), or over 2.0 degrees C
(UNFCCC 2011). International leaders
have committed to keeping warming below 2.0 degrees C and to consider a goal
to keep warming below 1.5 degrees C (UNFCCC 2011). But we are currently well off target to reach
these goals. Assessments of current
policy settings project temperature increases from 3.5 degrees C (Höhne et
al 2011) to 6 degrees C (IEA 2012). Betts
(2011) estimates that a global temperature increase of 4 degrees C reached during the
2070s, is consistent with current emission trajectories.</span><br />
<o:p></o:p></div>
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The
level of climate impacts on China will depend on whether countries meet
their existing policy commitments and, importantly, on whether policy
commitments to reduce emissions are strengthened enough to keep warming within
a range that is possible to adapt to.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>Climate
change impacts on China: Water & Food<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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On
a per capita basis China already has relatively poor water resources and
agricultural land. China ranks 121 of
150 countries for per capita water availability (Shaojun 2011, p85). China has 7% of the world’s arable land
available to feed 22% of the world’s population (Paio S et al 2010) and half of
the country’s land area is arid or semiarid (NIC 2009). <o:p></o:p></div>
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The problem
of water shortage in China did not become evident until the 1970s. Previously (in the 1950s and 60s) the problem
of floods in China was more serious than that of droughts. In the 1980s persistent drought, rapid urban
development and urban population increase combined to push water demand in many
areas above the limited, and in some cases declining, groundwater
capacity. In response many cities began
to tap into the agricultural water supply.
This then pushed the agriculture sector to increasingly utilise
underground sources, resulting in precipitous drops in water tables, and ground
subsidence. (Shaojun in Keeley and Yisheng
2011, p85 & 86)</div>
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Recent
water scarcity in China has led to a wide range of ecological and agricultural problems,
and has a negative impact on cities and industry. Water shortages exist in 400 of the country’s
668 cities, and conditions are dire in 200 of these. On average the annual industrial water
deficit is 600 million m<span style="font-size: x-small;">3</span>, which accounts for the loss of RMB 230
billion (just under US$ 35 billion) worth of industrial output. (Shaojun in Keeley and Yisheng 2011, p85)<o:p></o:p></div>
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The
Economist (2010b) estimates that water pollution and scarcity are already
responsible for reducing China’s GDP by 2.3%.
Xiaomin (2011) conservatively estimates water pollution alone cost the
Chinese economy RMB 286.28 billion / US$ 42.5 billion in 2004 – or roughly 1.6%
of GDP.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Shaojun
(in Keeley and Yisheng 2011, p86) attributes the recent escalation in water
stress to two factors. First economic
growth, population increase and a rising standard of living caused the national
volume of water withdrawal and consumption to grow from 103 billion to 590
billion m3 between 1949 and 2008.
Second climate change has resulted in precipitation and temperature in
the last 20 years becoming increasingly uneven between the northern and the
southern parts of China, with the former experiencing more frequent droughts
and the latter more frequent floods.<o:p></o:p><br />
<br /></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2srf9WJFhQwVVCBeT8gLvBw-nve28Jy1BnNY3SEocN_3Pc7FrdLpmCSMYQl7oMvNs0V6jTRVmvl9jS3h8BEARjM-rOco0_XcFdgzXiFuwRRiUT0jxcWh5BWPj32xlJgPJ7z-Ux-OF5QGA/s1600/yunnan_drought_2011.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2srf9WJFhQwVVCBeT8gLvBw-nve28Jy1BnNY3SEocN_3Pc7FrdLpmCSMYQl7oMvNs0V6jTRVmvl9jS3h8BEARjM-rOco0_XcFdgzXiFuwRRiUT0jxcWh5BWPj32xlJgPJ7z-Ux-OF5QGA/s320/yunnan_drought_2011.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="color: #615f5f; font-family: Arial, Georgia, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14.399999618530273px; line-height: 22.399999618530273px; text-align: -webkit-center;">Wang Jun, an official in charge of local water management, shows the dried-up reservoir at Luliang County in Qujing City, southwest China's Yunnan Province, Aug. 23, 2011. The city is suffering the worst summer drought since records began in 1961.</span><br />
<span style="color: #615f5f; font-family: Arial, Georgia, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14.399999618530273px; line-height: 22.399999618530273px; text-align: -webkit-center;">source: <a href="http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90783/7580987.html" target="_blank">Xinhua</a></span><br />
<br /></div>
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As an example, in 2011 much of China
was in drought including the Yellow River and Huaihe River basin which
experienced the most serious autumn–winter drought in the past 41 years. The middle and low reaches of Yangtze River
basin experienced the most serious winter–spring drought in the last 60 years,
followed by an abrupt transition from drought to flooding in June. Southwestern China experienced the most
serious summer–autumn drought in the past 60 years. The autumn saw regional
flooding across the Huaxi region (in midwestern China) and Huanghuai regions
(in northern China) and heavy rainfall caused water logging and inundation in
big cities such as Beijing. (Zhang 2012)<o:p></o:p></div>
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Climate
change modelling indicates that droughts and dryness will increase even further
– especially in already-dry areas. And
that increased precipitation and flooding is also expected as storms, including
monsoons and typhoons, intensify (Dai A 2010; NIC 2009) and as landscapes
affected by drought are less able to absorb water. <o:p></o:p></div>
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It
is projected that by the time the Chinese population reaches 1.6 billion
(currently 1.3 billion), China will be facing serious water shortage problems.
(Shaojun in Keeley and Yisheng 2011, p85).<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvjLUkhJ0psxGrIDZz4vyIoYK294LJ_0rMnvu3dwbLEF5Ndgv2efLQMzXWRqGlwAphQfq1YmaK-HeMrB3arkWbNiiHjdGSO2Q0LPkKd3qpQw2pU4Uz4swm1yiCac8zGEoDr14vIik-L0rq/s1600/China_precipitation.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvjLUkhJ0psxGrIDZz4vyIoYK294LJ_0rMnvu3dwbLEF5Ndgv2efLQMzXWRqGlwAphQfq1YmaK-HeMrB3arkWbNiiHjdGSO2Q0LPkKd3qpQw2pU4Uz4swm1yiCac8zGEoDr14vIik-L0rq/s640/China_precipitation.png" width="505" /></a></div>
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<o:p> </o:p><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 20pt;">Source: Dai A, 2010.</span></div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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<o:p> </o:p><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 16pt;"> </span></div>
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The
Chinese Government have recognised this climate vulnerability and are taking
actions to increase resilience to
climate change. It is undertaking a
mammoth engineering project in<b> </b>the South-North Water Project (NIC
2009; The Economist 2010b). At $62
billion this project will divert 44.8 billion cubic metres of water per year
from the Yangtze River in southern China to the Yellow River Basin in northern
China, along the way displacing hundreds of thousands of people. However recent droughts in southern China
make questionable the assumption that this much water transfer is possible, and
water pollution may render the water unfit to drink. (International Rivers
2012) There is also a concern that this ‘engineering
fix’ may simply perpetuate dependency on water from outside sources and act as
a disincentive for recipient cities to learn to live within their means (Shaojun
2011, p93). <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTiPYZNERnipyzJlo7KMHBsBJwR9uk1BdzsCSAPxfryBjT8QF_bL6DXU2S0QX6FR7FJdk8IEJIvk96N_YnEQrX5gF0dGxra9j_nN-j_ULvDAa5uXk7dvdPyIZQ2R3kd5qqQp2-IujamDjG/s1600/sn_project_map.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="227" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTiPYZNERnipyzJlo7KMHBsBJwR9uk1BdzsCSAPxfryBjT8QF_bL6DXU2S0QX6FR7FJdk8IEJIvk96N_YnEQrX5gF0dGxra9j_nN-j_ULvDAa5uXk7dvdPyIZQ2R3kd5qqQp2-IujamDjG/s320/sn_project_map.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
Map of the South-North water transfer project route<br />
source: New York Times (in International Rivers 2012)<br />
<br /></div>
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China
is also implementing programs to increase water efficiency within farms (The
Economist 2010a, Shaojun 2011 p88) and within industry (Shaojun p88) but it is
hard to see how these efforts will be sufficient to fully counteract impacts at
even moderate levels of climate change – let along the 3.5 to 6 degrees projected
with current policy settings.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Recently China turned from being a net exporter
to a net importer of food (World Bank 2008).
The US National Intelligence Council (2009) estimates that China’s agriculture output could be reduced 5-10% by 2030
due to climate change impacts.
China’s population is expected to grow at approximately 0.5% per year
(World Bank in Google Public Docs, 2012).
In the context of growing global population and tightening global food
production, it seems likely that China will have to divert resources away from
economic development into paying a higher price for food.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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This forthcoming water and food crisis could impact
China’s social, economic, and political stability to a great extent. Conflicts about water rights in the
drought regions of northern China and farmers forced off their lands due to
increased drought and the rising price of food may lead to social unrest. (NIC 2009)<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>Climate
change impacts on China: Extreme events</b><o:p></o:p></div>
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China’s
coastal regions, the engine of China’s economic achievement, are flat and low
and highly vulnerable to storm, flood, and sea-level rise expected with climate
change. In recent years the increasing
frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (floods, droughts, storms) has threatened economic development. Extreme weather events have caused
direct economic losses of $25 to 37.5 billion in China per year. (NIC 2009) This is very roughly equivalent to China’s military
budget or four times China’s social welfare budget including pensions.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>Air
pollution affects on China<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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China
has the most polluted cities in the world (see the graph below). Burning coal, a major contributor to climate
change, is the single largest source of airborne pollution in China (Yushi
2010, p5). 300,000 people in China die
prematurely from air pollution annually (Economy 2004, p 85). In the most polluted cities, when children
breathe, it is the equivalent of smoking 2 packs of cigarettes per day (Economy
2004, p 85). The economic cost of this
pollution is substantial, the World Bank (2007) estimates that the burden of
premature mortality and morbidity associated with air pollution was 1.16% -
3.8% of GDP in 2003. Roughly 1-2 times
China’s military budget or 3-9 times China’s social welfare and pensions budget.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi26mf-HX-TBOD3PV0hQufPU-kOK82WdZcy0VoieJmintBZBmI6L7P2KniVTLAHy_cIgbazlpJFzqSljupTVAndxpYkDaOZZcMfmKtlgJ6JuwEu41LIXuuOX4V2E5XxusIEpTNAcy-xPdZ0/s1600/China_air_pollution.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="482" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi26mf-HX-TBOD3PV0hQufPU-kOK82WdZcy0VoieJmintBZBmI6L7P2KniVTLAHy_cIgbazlpJFzqSljupTVAndxpYkDaOZZcMfmKtlgJ6JuwEu41LIXuuOX4V2E5XxusIEpTNAcy-xPdZ0/s640/China_air_pollution.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 14pt;">Source: World Bank, 2007</span></div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>Climate/environment
link to civil unrest<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Economy
(2004 pp221-256) draws parallels with other autocratic societies, including in
Eastern Europe, where the environment was used as a basis for social unrest and
notes that damage to public health, which is related to climate change
pollution, is one of the chief sources of environmental protests in China. Economy believes that it is no coincidence that
the number of large-scale protests tripled in the period 1998 to 2000 to
170,000 (Economy 2004 p83). <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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An
additional source of social unrest could come from water shortages (NIC 2009)
and food shortages which could result in further and escalating civil
unrest. The Arab Spring can be seen as
a precedent for this, where high food prices contributed to the circumstances
conducive for social uprising (Lagi 2011).
<o:p></o:p></div>
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According
to the NIC (2009) social stability is China’s top governance priority. The Chinese Government are concerned about
the growing public unrest. Toy (2007)
reported that the World Bank reluctantly censored a report revealing that
750,000 people died prematurely every year in China from pollution-related
disease because Beijing officials
feared it would provoke "social unrest". Concern about social unrest may have led the
Chinese Government to subsidise food and energy prices, which otherwise would
have increased substantially, in 2010 (Brown 2010).<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>Will
climate change constrain China’s development?</b><o:p></o:p></div>
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Climate change will have a substantial impact on
China’s ecology, its economy and on Chinese people. Already a country with relatively low water
resources and small allocation of arable land, it may be approaching or have
reached the limits of its carrying capacity.
Climate change will put further strain on these constrained resources –
making both water and food shortages difficult to avoid. This will have two impacts – first
significant resources will need to be reallocated from economic development to
food and water security, and second it has the potential to significantly
impact social stability as people become increasingly unhappy with water and
food shortages and as the growth in living standards slows to deal with these
difficulties. The high levels of
pollution in China are likely to add to the dissatisfaction of the Chinese
population. Examples in Eastern Europe
and the Middle East have shown how environmental concerns have been a catalyst
and conduit for uprisings. For all of
these reasons the Chinese Government has a significant incentive for dealing
with climate change, by both encouraging global action to keep climate change
within moderate limits and by implementing smart adaptation strategies to live
within China’s shrinking ecological means. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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This is the first in a two part series, a second essay
will consider whether emission reductions will act as a constraint on growth, the
interaction between international political considerations and China’s
emissions reductions and resulting impact on China’s development.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<br />
<i>This post is a modified version of an assignment completed for China in the World Economy, at the University of Sydney. Lecturer <a href="http://sydney.edu.au/arts/political_economy/staff/academic_staff/joseph_halevi.shtml" target="_blank">Joseph Halevi</a>.</i></div>
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<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>References<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
AOSIS and LDCs. 2009. <i>Press
Release: Small Islands and Least Developed Countries Join Forces on Climate
Change, Vulnerable countries say more than 1.5 degrees of climate change is
unacceptable</i>, Available at: <a href="http://www.independentdiplomat.org/documents/joinforces">www.independentdiplomat.org/documents/joinforces</a>,
Accessed 12 October 2011.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Betts R, Collins M, Hemming D, Jones C, Lowe J, Sanderson M, 2011. <i>When
could global warming reach 4oC? </i>Philosophical
Transactions of the Royal Society A. 2011 369, 67-84<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Browne A, Frangos A. November 18, 2010. China takes steps to control
prices, <i>Business with the Wall Street
Journal</i>. Accessed 16 May 2012: <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business-old/news/china-takes-steps-to-control-prices/story-e6frg90x-1225955318934">http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business-old/news/china-takes-steps-to-control-prices/story-e6frg90x-1225955318934</a>
<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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China Daily. May 21, 2009. <i>China eyes more cash, less gas emissions.</i>
Quotes report from: National Development
and Reform Commission (NDRC) research panel.
Accessed 26 April 2012: <a href="http://www.china.org.cn/environment/opinions/2009-05/21/content_17811239.htm">http://www.china.org.cn/environment/opinions/2009-05/21/content_17811239.htm</a><o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Chinese Government. May 18,
2012. <i>UNFCCC Workshop on NA1 NAMAs</i>.
Accessed 6 June 2012: http://unfccc.int/files/bodies/awg-lca/application/pdf/20120517_china_1539.pdf<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Version 9.0. Washington, DC:
World Resources Institute, 2012.
Accessed 29 April 2012: <a href="http://cait.wri.org/cait.php">http://cait.wri.org/cait.php</a><o:p></o:p></div>
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Dai A. October 19 2010. <i>Climate Change: Drought may threaten much of
globe within decades</i>. Boulder USA: National
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Accessed 25 April 2012: <a href="https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/2904/climate-change-drought-may-threaten-much-globe-within-decades">https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/2904/climate-change-drought-may-threaten-much-globe-within-decades</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
den Elzen M, Roelfsema M, Hof A, Böttcher H, Grassi G. April 2012. <i>Analysing the emission gap between pledged
emission reductions under the Cancún Agreements and the 2 °C climate target</i>,
The Hague: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Economy, E, 2004, <i>The Environmental Challenge to China’s Future: The
River Runs Black</i>, 2004, New York: Cornell University Press<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Fogarty D, Stanway D. 2012. China emissions study suggests climate
change could be faster than thought.
Accessed 20 June 2012: <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/10/us-china-emissions-idUSBRE8590AD20120610">http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/10/us-china-emissions-idUSBRE8590AD20120610</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Google Public Data, <i>Population
growth rate</i>, Data from World Bank.
Last updated March 30, 2012.
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Höhne N, Hare B, Schaeffer M, Chen C, Rocha M, Vieweg-Mersmann M,
Fekete H, Rogelj J, Macey K, Fallasch F. 6 December 2011a. <i>Negotiations
heading towards high warming, high cost pathway. Climate Action Tracker Update.
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<br /></div>
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Höhne N, Hare B, Schaeffer M, Chen C, Rocha M, Vieweg M, Moltmann S. 4 October 2011b. <i>China
emission paradox: Cancun emissions intensity pledge to be surpassed but
emissions higher.</i> <i>Climate Action
Tracker Update, 4 October 2011. </i>Accessed
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
International Energy Agency (IEA). 25 April 2012. <i>Press
Release: IEA urges governments to seize the opportunity to accelerate clean
energy deployment</i>. Accessed 25 April
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
International Energy Agency (IEA).
April 2012. <i>Tracking Clean Energy
Progress: Energy Technology Perspectives 2012</i>. Paris: IEA Publications.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
International Rivers, South-North Water Transfer Project. Accessed 21 July 2012: <a href="http://www.internationalrivers.org/campaigns/south-north-water-transfer-project">http://www.internationalrivers.org/campaigns/south-north-water-transfer-project</a><o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Keeley J, Yisheng Z (eds).
2011. Green China: Chinese
insights on environment and development.
International Institute for Environment and Development. London.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Lagi M, Bertrand K, Bar-Yam Y. September 28, 2011. <i>The
Food Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East. </i>Accessed 16 May 2012: <a href="http://necsi.edu/research/social/food_crises.pdf">http://necsi.edu/research/social/food_crises.pdf</a>.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Met Office. March 19, 2012. <i>Updates
to HadCRUT global temperature dataset</i>.
Accessed 5 May 2012: <a href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2012/hadcrut-updates">http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2012/hadcrut-updates</a><o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
NIC (National Intelligence Council).
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</b>Washington<b>: </b>National
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<br /></div>
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Olivier JGJ, Janssens-Maenhout G, Peters JAHW, Wilson J. 2011,
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Piao S, Ciais P, Huang Y, Shen Z, Peng S, Li J, Zhou L, Liu H, Ma Y,
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<br /></div>
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Sanderson M, Hemming D, Betts R. <i>Regional
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<br /></div>
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Shaojun C. 2011. <i>Water Resource Scarcity in China</i>. [in Keeley J, Yisheng Z (eds) 2011, Green China: Chinese
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
The Economist, <i>China’s peasants
look to the skies: but the science of yields is unyielding</i>, 20 May 2010a<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
The Economist, <i>The Ups and Downs
of Dams</i>, 20 May 2010b<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Toy M, <i>Pollution facts suppressed by China</i>, Sydney Morning
Herald, July 5 2007<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Wong S, 2007. <i>China Bets on Massive Water Transfers to
Solve Crisis. </i>International
Rivers. Accessed 21 July 2012: <a href="http://www.internationalrivers.org/resources/china-bets-on-massive-water-transfers-to-solve-crisis-1899">http://www.internationalrivers.org/resources/china-bets-on-massive-water-transfers-to-solve-crisis-1899</a><o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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UNEP 2011. <i>Bridging the Emissions
Gap</i>. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)<o:p></o:p></div>
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UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). March
2011. <i>Report of the Conference of the Parties on its sixteenth session, held
in Cancun from 29 November to 10 December 2010</i>. Accessed 5 May 2012: <a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/cop16/eng/07a01.pdf#page=2">http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/cop16/eng/07a01.pdf#page=2</a><o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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United States Environmental Protection Authority (US EPA), Future
Temperature Changes. Last updated on
Thursday, April 14, 2011. Accessed 25
April 2012: <a href="http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/futuretc.html">http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/futuretc.html</a> (for the IPCC graph)<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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UNU-IHDP and UNEP (2012). Inclusive Wealth Report 2012. Measuring progress toward sustainability.
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Available: <a href="http://www.ihdp.unu.edu/article/iwr">http://www.ihdp.unu.edu/article/iwr</a>
<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Wang, J., Huang, J., and
Rozelle, S. Climate Change and China’s Agricultural Sector: An Overview of
Impacts,<o:p></o:p></div>
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Adaptation and Mitigation,
ICTSD–IPC Platform on Climate Change, Agriculture and Trade, Issue Brief No.5,<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
International Centre for Trade
and Sustainable Development, Geneva, Switzerland and International Food &
Agricultural Trade Policy Council, Washington DC, USA.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.0pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
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Wen, D. 2009. <i>Occasional Paper: 6 CLIMATE CHANGE AND CHINA: Technology, Market
and Beyond. </i>Thailand: Focus on the Global South. <o:p></o:p></div>
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World Bank. February 2007. <i>Cost of
Pollution in China, Economic Estimates of Physical Damages</i>. Conference Edition. Washington DC: The World Bank.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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World Bank. January 2008. <i>Policy
Research Working Paper 4457: Who Are The Net Food Importing Countries?</i>
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Xiaomin G 2011. Understanding
Environmental Pollution in China [in Keeley J,
Yisheng Z (eds) 2011, Green China: Chinese insights on environment and
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for Environment and Development. London.
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Xinhua News Agency. <i>Building
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June 2005. Accessed 16 May 2012:
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Yushi M, Hong S, Fuqiang Y.
September 2008. <i>The True Cost of Coal</i>. Accessed 25 April 2012: <a href="http://www.greenpeace.org/eastasia/PageFiles/301168/the-true-cost-of-coal.pdf">http://www.greenpeace.org/eastasia/PageFiles/301168/the-true-cost-of-coal.pdf</a>
<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Zhang P, Liu Y, Yamada
R, Shin J, and Oyunjargal L. 2012. [Regional
Climates] <i>East Asia</i> <span style="font-family: GillSansMT; font-size: 9pt;">[in
“State of the Climate in 2011”]. </span><i><span style="font-family: GillSansMT-Italic; font-size: 9pt;">Bulletin
American Meteorological Society</span></i><span style="font-family: GillSansMT; font-size: 9pt;">, </span><b><span style="font-family: GillSansMT-Bold; font-size: 9pt;">93
</span></b><span style="font-family: GillSansMT; font-size: 9pt;">(7)</span>. S203 – S208<o:p></o:p></div>Julie-Anne Richardshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04023943585895204985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9151982530887851499.post-5939729348992808172012-06-18T09:00:00.000-07:002012-07-21T23:16:15.653-07:00Inclusive Wealth Index aka: markets are not god-given-formulas<span style="background-color: white;">The UNEP recently launched a new </span><a href="http://cl.ly/2k0k300R1W0A422j0U1i" style="background-color: white;">report</a><span style="background-color: white;">/index - the Inclusive Wealth Index (IWI).</span><br />
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<br /></div>
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The IWI looks beyond the traditional economic and
development yardsticks of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Human
Development Index (HDI) to include a full range of assets such as manufactured,
human and natural capital, showing the true state of a nation's
wealth and the sustainability of its growth. It aims to show whether we are building or destroying the productive base that supports
our well being.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Some country examples:</div>
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Australia has an annual GDP growth rate of 2.2% over the
last 19 years, but an IWI of only 0.1%.</div>
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China – GDP 9.6%, IWI 2.1%</div>
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US – GDP 1.8%, IWI 0.7%</div>
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<br />
<a name='more'></a><br /></div>
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And there are fab-o graphs to download.</div>
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<br /></div>
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The UNEP press release (with a link to the report
etc): <a href="http://www.unep.org/newscentre/Default.aspx?DocumentID=2688&ArticleID=9174&l=en">http://www.unep.org/newscentre/Default.aspx?DocumentID=2688&ArticleID=9174&l=en</a></div>
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<br /></div>
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And The Guardian was where I got tipped off to the existence
of this report (<a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/sustainable-business/rio-20-un-earth-summit-business-diary">http://www.guardian.co.uk/sustainable-business/rio-20-un-earth-summit-business-diary</a>)
includes a good piece on the speech that Achim Steiner made at the launch,
which includes the killer points:</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<ul>
<li><span style="background-color: white; text-indent: -18pt;">The environmental community has been scared of
economics for too long. If we do not go into the heart of the political
economy, we will meet here at Rio +40 and we will be culpable of not having
looked at the right issue.</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: white; text-indent: -18pt;">Markets are not god given formulas that function
according to science , they are social constructs. They can be governed and
that is our agenda, not to surrender to markets that are often framed by vested
interests.</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: white; text-indent: -18pt;">The green economy is not the prerogative of rich
countries. If developing countries wait for foreign technology, they will wait
for another 20 years . Countries need to look at the resource base within their
own national boundaries.</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: white; text-indent: -18pt;">My interpretation of the green economy for
developed countries is that your footprint is too large and that means reducing
your footprint and consumption and de-coupling economic development from
resource use.</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: white; text-indent: -18pt;">For developing countries it essentially means
moving away from an energy economy by jumping to new technology, which is very
feasible.</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
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<br /></div>Julie-Anne Richardshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04023943585895204985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9151982530887851499.post-21946174265104758782012-06-18T04:38:00.000-07:002012-07-22T04:14:47.152-07:00Wedging the emissions gap<span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;">Allright, so it's not the title I would have chosen but Blok, Höhne, van der Leun & Harrison in Nature Climate
Change have quantified 21 initiatives that would achieve an additional 10 Gt CO2e mitigation - </span><span style="background-color: white;"> hence</span><span style="background-color: white;"> ‘wedging the emissions gap’.</span><br />
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Below is a potted cut and paste job, I recommend
going to: <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1602.html">http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1602.html</a>
for the full (and not long) paper</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"></span><br />
<a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">The combined effect of the initiatives can be quite
substantial: a reduction of roughly 10 Gt CO<sub>2</sub>e below
business as usual by 2020, plus the effect of enhanced reductions in
air-pollutant emissions. This can be compared to the gap of around 12 Gt CO<sub>2</sub>e
between business as usual and what would be necessary for the 2 °C limit. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 11.4pt; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Action by an
individual citizen, a municipality or even a large multinational company may be
considered 'a drop in the ocean'. Even individual actions by large companies or
big cities will rarely have an impact of more than a few megatonnes of carbon
dioxide equivalent. However, being part of a larger coalition that has the
potential to completely bridge the entire emissions gap will make it much more
attractive to participate in and take action. To this end, it is necessary that
globally leading organizations in the world of business, governments and
non-governmental organizations (NGOs) participate. They need to be part of a
coalition that together provides leadership in bridging the gap. Therefore, the
key to the success of the wedging-the-gap approach is forming and sustaining
this coalition.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 11.4pt; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white;">The successes
of the coalition of initiatives have to be fed back into the UNFCCC process and
have to have an impact on national government pledges. Otherwise national
governments may feel released from the pressure to implement and strengthen
their pledge, as they could rely on the success of action elsewhere.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 11.4pt;">
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Companies'
emissions<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 11.4pt; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Top 1,000 companies' emission reductions</b>. An
association such as the World Business Council for Sustainable Development
could lead 30% of the top 1,000 companies to reduce energy-related emissions
10% below business as usual by 2020 and all companies to reduce their
non-carbon dioxide greenhouse-gas emissions by 50%. <b>Impact in 2020: up to
0.7 Gt CO</b><b><sub>2</sub></b><b>e</b>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 11.4pt; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Supply-chain emission reductions</b>. An
organization such as the Consumer Goods Forum could stimulate 30% of companies
to require their supply chains to reduce emissions 10% below business as usual
by 2020. <b>Impact in 2020: up to 0.2 Gt CO</b><b><sub>2</sub></b><b>e.</b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 11.4pt; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Green financial institutions</b>. finance initiative of
the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP-FI). could lead the 20 largest
banks to reduce the carbon footprint of 10% of their assets by 80%. <b>Impact
in 2020: up to 0.4 Gt CO</b><b><sub>2</sub></b><b>e</b>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 11.4pt; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Voluntary-offset companies</b>. A coalition between an
organization with convening power, for example, UNEP, and offset providers
could motivate 20% of the companies in the light industry and commercial sector
to calculate their greenhouse-gas emissions, apply emission-reduction measures
and offset the remaining emissions (retiring the purchased credits). It is
ensured that offset projects really reduce emissions by using the 'gold
standard' for offset projects or another comparable mechanism. Governments
could provide incentives by giving tax credits for offsetting, similar to those
commonly given for charitable donations. <b>Impact by 2020: up to 2.0 Gt CO</b><b><sub>2</sub></b><b>e</b>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 11.4pt;">
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Other
actors<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 11.4pt; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Voluntary-offset consumers</b>. Environmental NGOs
could motivate 10% of the 20% of richest individuals to offset their personal
emissions from electricity use, heating and transport at cost to them of around
US$200 per year. <b>Impact in 2020: up to 1.6 Gt CO</b><b><sub>2</sub></b><b>e</b>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 11.4pt; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Major cities initiative</b>. Groups such as the C40 or
ICLEI — Local Governments for Sustainability could lead the 40 cities in C40 or
an equivalent sample to reduce emissions 20% below business as usual by 2020,
building on the thousands of emission-reduction activities already implemented
by the C40 cities. <b>Impact in 2020: up to 0.7 Gt CO</b><b><sub>2</sub></b><b>e</b>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 11.4pt; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Subnational governments</b>. Following the example set by
states such as California, these ambitious US states and Canadian provinces
could accept an emission-reduction target of 15–20% below business as usual by
2020, as some states already have. <b>Impact in 2020: up to 0.6 Gt CO</b><b><sub>2</sub></b><b>e.<o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 11.4pt;">
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Energy
efficiency<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 11.4pt; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Building heating and cooling</b>. The UN Secretary
General's Sustainable Energy for All Initiative could bring together the
relevant players to realize 30% of the full reduction potential for 2020. <b>Impact
in 2020: up to 0.6 Gt CO</b><b><sub>2</sub></b><b>e</b>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 11.4pt; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Ban of incandescent lamps</b>. target to globally ban
incandescent lamps by 2016. <b>Impact in 2020: up to 0.2 Gt CO</b><b><sub>2</sub></b><b>e</b>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 11.4pt; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Electric appliances</b>. international labelling
schemes and standards could drive use of the most energy-efficient appliances
on the market. <b>Impact in 2020: up to 0.6 Gt CO</b><b><sub>2</sub></b><b>e</b>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 11.4pt; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Cars and trucks</b>. agree to save one additional
litre per 100 km globally by 2020 for cars, and equivalent reductions for
trucks. <b>Impact in 2020: up to 0.7 Gt CO</b><b><sub>2</sub></b><b>e</b>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 11.4pt;">
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Energy
supply<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 11.4pt; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Boost solar photovoltaic energy</b>. A
coalition of progressive governments and producers could remove barriers by
introducing good grid access and net metering rules, paving the way to add
another 1,600 GW by 2020 (growth consistent with recent years<b>). Impact in
2020: up to 1.4 Gt CO</b><b><sub>2</sub></b><b>e.<o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 11.4pt; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Wind energy</b>. The Global Wind Energy Council could
foster the global introduction of arrangements that lead to risk reduction for
investments in wind energy, with, for example, grid access and guarantees. This
could lead to an installation of 1,070 GW by 2020, which is 650 GW over a
reference scenario. <b>Impact in 2020: up to 1.2 Gt CO</b><b><sub>2</sub></b><b>e.<o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 11.4pt; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Access to energy through low-emission options</b>. The UN
Secretary General's Sustainable Energy for All Initiative could ensure that all
people without access to electricity get access through low-emission options. <b>Impact
in 2020: up to 0.4 Gt CO</b><b><sub>2</sub></b><b>e</b>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Phasing-out subsidies for fossil fuels</b>.
phase-out half of all fossil-fuel subsidies. <b>Impact in 2020: up to 0.9 Gt CO</b><b><sub>2</sub></b><b>e</b>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Special
sectors<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>International aviation and maritime transport</b>.
capture half of the technical mitigation potential. <b>Impact in 2020: up to
0.2 Gt CO</b><b><sub>2</sub></b><b>e</b>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Fluorinated gases (hydrofluorocarbons, perflourocarbons, SF</b><b><sub>6</sub></b><b>)</b>.
meeting half of the technical mitigation potential. <b>Impact in 2020: up to
0.3 Gt CO</b><b><sub>2</sub></b><b>e</b>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Reduce deforestation</b>. halving global deforestation
by 2020. <b>Impact in 2020: up to 1.8 Gt CO</b><b><sub>2</sub></b><b>e</b>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Agriculture</b>. The International Federation of
Agricultural Producers could help to realize 30% of the technical mitigation
potential. <b>Impact in 2020: up to 0.8 Gt CO</b><b><sub>2</sub></b><b>e</b>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Air
pollutants<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Enhanced reduction of air pollutants</b>.
Reduction of classic air pollutants including black carbon has been pursued for
years owing to positive impacts on health and local air quality. UNEP's Climate
and Clean Air Coalition To Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants already has
significant political momentum and could realize half of the technical
mitigation potential. Impact in 2020: a reduction in radiative forcing impact
equivalent to an emission reduction of greenhouse gases in the order of 1 Gt CO<sub>2</sub>e, but
outside of the definition of the gap.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Efficient cook-stoves</b>. Cooking in rural areas is a
source of carbon dioxide emissions. Furthermore, there are emissions of black
carbon, which also leads to global warming. Replacing these cook-stoves would
also significantly increase local air quality and reduce pressure on forests
from fuel-wood demand. A global development organization such as the UN
Development Programme could take the lead in scaling-up the many already
existing programmes to eventually replace half of the existing cook-stoves.
Impact in 2020: a reduction in radiative forcing impact equivalent to an
emission reduction of greenhouse gases of up to 0.6 Gt CO<sub>2</sub>e,
included in the effect of the above initiative and outside of the definition of
the gap.</span></div>Julie-Anne Richardshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04023943585895204985noreply@blogger.com0